Lithium resources safety assessment and early warning of China

Lithium is an important strategic mineral resource in our country, under the background of lithium resource demand to increase rapidly, relying on import seriously, to our country lithium resource safety early warning analysis is necessary and urgent. Resource endowments, import security, market risk and geopolitics are selected as first-level indicators to construct an index system for the security of China's lithium resources. The constant weight and variable weight models were used to evaluate the security of lithium resources in China from 2009 to 2021. The ARIMA-BP model was used to study the security of lithium resources in China from 2022—2035. The tudy results indicate that: ① External dependence, import concentration and transportation risk are the main factors affecting the security of lithium resources; ② From 2009 to 2021, the safety level of lithium resources in China fluctuated from yellow - basic safety level to orange - unsafe level, The resource endowments and the import security are the main reasons for the low level of resource security; ③ From 2022 to 2035, the security score of China's lithium resources continued to decline. Except for 2026, which were in the yellow—basic safety level, the rest of the years were in the orange — unsafe level.