朱一姝, 吴涵宇, 马明, 徐瑶瑶, 马灿璇. 0: 长江三角洲城市群碳排放及其影响因素的多尺度空间关系研究. 地质通报. DOI: 10.12097/gbc.2023.07.036
    引用本文: 朱一姝, 吴涵宇, 马明, 徐瑶瑶, 马灿璇. 0: 长江三角洲城市群碳排放及其影响因素的多尺度空间关系研究. 地质通报. DOI: 10.12097/gbc.2023.07.036

    长江三角洲城市群碳排放及其影响因素的多尺度空间关系研究

    • 摘要: 在推进生态文明建设的新时代背景下,“双碳”目标的深入落实已成为各界关注的热点问题,特别是作为国家区域经济高质量发展典范的长三角城市群,研究该区域碳排放空间分布及其影响因素之间的多尺度空间关系具有十分重要的意义。因此,本文以长三角城市群为研究对象,以县域为研究尺度,应用莫兰指数、冷热点分析等空间分析方法,挖掘该区域碳排放的空间分布规律,并基于MGWR模型分析该区域碳排放及其影响因素的空间变化关系。得出以下结论:(1)长三角城市群碳排放在空间上存在显著的H-H(高-高)集聚和L-L(低-低)集聚;(2)相比OLS模型、GWR模型,MGWR模型得出的结果精度更高、误差更小,可以反映出不同解释变量对各区县碳排放的影响变化尺度,使得实验结果更加准确可靠;(3)GPP、道路密度、GDP、产业占比等在全局范围内对碳排放产生不同影响,NDVI、人口密度、用电量在局部范围内对碳排放产生不同影响。根据本文研究结果,可以基于空间变化关系制定减排政策,基于带宽变化制定相应的全局和局部措施,促进长三角城市群“双碳”目标的实现。

       

      Abstract: In the new era of promoting ecological civilization construction, the in-depth implementation of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals have become a hot topic of concern for all sectors of society, especially in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, which serves as a model for high-quality development of the national regional economy. So it is important to study the spatial distribution of carbon emissions and the multi-scale spatial relationships between carbon emissions and influencing factors. This paper selects the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration as research object and the county as the research scale, and applies spatial analysis methods such as Moran's I, cold and hot spot analysis to explore the spatial distribution of carbon emissions. At the same time based on the MGWR model analyzes the spatial variation relationship of carbon emissions and the influencing factors. The conclusion is as follows: (1) There are significant H-H (high-high) clustering and L-L (low-low) clustering of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration; (2) Compared to OLS model and GWR model, the results of MGWR model are more precise and smaller errors. They can reflect the impact of scale variation between different influencing factors and carbon emissions and ensure the results more accurately and reliably; (3) GPP, road density, GDP, the proportion of the primary, secondary and tertiary industry are the influence mechanism on the global scale. And NDVI, population density, and electricity consumption are the influence mechanisms at the local scale. According to the research results of this paper, emission reduction policies can be formulated based on spatial changes and global or local measures can be formulated based on bandwidth changes between carbon emissions and influencing factors to promote the achievement of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.

       

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