京津冀地区水质净化功能时空演变及影响因素分析

    Spatial and temporal evolution of water purification function in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and analysis of influencing factors

    • 摘要: 随着全球气候变化和人类活动的加剧,水质污染已成为全球面临的重要环境问题之一,京津冀地区作为中国经济最为发达、人口最为密集的区域之一,快速的城市化和工业化进程导致水资源短缺、水质恶化、水生态退化等问题日益严峻。本文以总磷输出(TP)来测算水质净化功能,利用InVEST模型、空间自相关分析和时空地理加权回归模型(GTWR)分析京津冀地区水质净化功能的时空演变特征及影响因素的时空异质性。结果表明:1.西北部山区磷输出量低于东南部平原,高值区主要分布于山前平原,1990至2020年磷输出量时间差异不大,单位面积磷输出量呈减少的趋势,表明京津冀地区水质净化能力加强;2.磷输出量呈现出显著的“高-高”和“低-低”聚集特征;3. 时空地理加权回归模型(GTWR)分析结果表明:总体上看,对磷输出量有较大正向效应的因素依次为海拔(0.38)、降水(0.29)、IJI(0.10)、PD(0.09),有较大负向效应的因素依次为NP(-0.50)、人口密度(-0.42)、PARA_MN(-0.31)、PRD(-0.25)。基于影响因素的时空异质性,从自然环境管理、产业结构转型和景观格局优化等三方面提出水资源合理分配与水环境治理建议,以期为京津冀高质量发展提供参考。
       

       

      Abstract: With the intensification of global climate change and human activities, water quality pollution has become one of the important environmental problems facing the world. As one of the most economically developed and densely populated regions in China, the rapid urbanization and industrialization process in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has led to increasingly severe problems of water resource scarcity, deterioration of water quality, and degradation of water ecology. In this paper, total phosphorus output (TP) is used to measure the water quality purification function, and InVEST model, spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatio-temporal geographically weighted regression (GTWR) model are used to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the water purification function in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the influencing factors. The results show that: 1. the phosphorus output in the northwestern mountainous areas is lower than that in the southeastern plains, and the high value areas are mainly distributed in the mountainous plains, and the temporal difference of phosphorus output from 1990 to 2020 is not significant, and the phosphorus output per unit area shows a decreasing tendency, which indicates that the water-quality purification capacity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has been strengthened; 2. the phosphorus output shows a significant “high - high” and “low-low” aggregation characteristics; 3. Spatio-temporal geographically weighted regression model (GTWR) analysis results show that, in general, the factors that have a large positive effect on phosphorus output are, in order, elevation (0.38), precipitation (0.29), IJI (0.10), and PD (0.09), and those that have a large negative effect are, in order, NP (-0.5), IJI (0.10), and PD (0.09). were NP (-0.50), population density (-0.42), PARA_MN (-0.31), and PRD (-0.25), in that order. Based on the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the influencing factors, suggestions for the rational allocation of water resources and water environment management were made from three aspects, including natural environment management, industrial structure transformation and landscape pattern optimization, with a view to providing a reference for the high-quality development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.

       

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