基于改进信息量模型的地质灾害易发性评价以西藏察隅县G219国道沿线为例

    Geological hazard susceptibility evaluation based on improved information model: A case study of the G219 National Highway in Zayu County, Xizang

    • 摘要:
      研究目的 公路建设引起道路沿线地质灾害频发。道路沿线地质灾害易发性评价是地质灾害应急救援中的关键问题,其评价结果可为灾害防范和应急决策提供科学依据,有助于减少灾害带来的潜在损失。
      研究方法 察隅县G219国道沿线共发育地质灾害85处(其中滑坡9处、崩塌31处、泥石流45处)。根据地质灾害的发育特征,选取水系线密度、道路线密度、地震峰值加速度、地震反应谱特征、岩组、地貌、DEM、平面曲率、剖面曲率、坡向和坡度11个影响因素作为评价因子,将地质灾害点核密度分析与信息量法相结合,改进信息量法模型,并运用GIS技术对研究区域的地质灾害易发性进行评价。
      研究结果 研究表明,基于改进的信息量法模型的易发性评价结果与实际灾害分布情况高度吻合。模型评价精度较高,AUC值达到0.836,表明模型对地质灾害易发性的预测能力显著。
      结论 改进的信息量法模型在评价地质灾害易发性方面表现出更优的精度,可为察隅县及其附近区域的城镇规划建设和地质灾害风险管理提供可靠的科学依据。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective Due to the impact of highway construction, geological hazards along roadways occur frequently. The susceptibility evaluation of geological hazards along roadways is a key issue in emergency response and rescue. The evaluation results can provide a scientific basis for disaster prevention and emergency decision-making, helping to mitigate potential losses caused by such hazards.
      Methods Along the G219 Highway in Zayu County, 85 geological disaster sites were identified (including 9 landslides, 31 collapses, and 45 debris flows). Based on the developmental characteristics of geological disasters, 11 influencing factors were selected as evaluation indicators: drainage density, road density, peak ground acceleration, seismic response spectrum characteristics, rock groups, geomorphology, DEM, plan curvature, profile curvature, aspect, and slope. A modified information value model combining geological disaster kernel density analysis with the information value method was developed. GIS technology was applied to evaluate the susceptibility of geological disasters in the study area.
      Results The results show that the susceptibility evaluation based on the modified information value model aligns closely with the actual distribution of geological disasters. The model demonstrated high predictive accuracy, with an AUC value of 0.836, indicating its significant capability in assessing geological disaster susceptibility.
      Conclusions The modified information value model provides superior evaluation accuracy and offers reliable scientific support for urban planning, construction, and geological disaster risk management in Zayu County and surrounding areas.

       

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